ForecastAccuracyAnalysis Background

River Level Analysis

Data-driven analysis of TransAlta reservoir contributions to North Saskatchewan River levels at Edmonton, based on 10 years of Environment Canada gauge data and AESO generation records.

TransAlta Reservoir Impact Analysis

How TransAlta's Bighorn and Brazeau dams contribute 42-70% of Edmonton's river flow — two to three times their share of the basin — and what generation increases are needed to maintain a 3.75m river level from May through October.

Main Report

Methodology & Data Sources

How every number was calculated: data sources, calibration methods, statistical models, and limitations. Written in plain language with ELI5 summaries.

Technical Appendix